Waste generation in Bavaria – 2016 and 2023 forecast
The result shows forecasts up to the end of 2016 and 2023. This report therefore forms an important building block in the future organisation of the waste management landscape in Bavaria. The study was carried out on behalf of the Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment and Consumer Protection ("Bayerisches Staatsministerium für Umwelt und Verbraucherschutz").
The forecast mainly deals with the waste management changes expected in the respective periods due to influencing societal, ecological, economic and technical factors. In particular, the relevant, difficult to assess factors were taken into account, which result from existing standards and the standards and political framework to be expected during the forecast period.
Scenarios were deduced from the potential changes in the relevant influencing factors and possible changes in the quantity flows and corridors have been forecast. To forecast municipal waste, on the one hand a maximum quantity scenario was formed and on the other hand a minimum quantity scenario. A central difference between the two scenarios is above all further development of the new waste management and recycling law. Possible developments in further "liberalisation" of the waste industry or maintenance of the status quo under the auspices of public service or "(re-)municipalisation" are all feasible.
Six years ago a previous study was submitted for the waste generation forecasts for 2010 and 2016 (see bifa text No. 33). bifa adopted its reliable investigation design for this study too.
bifa text No. 63 on waste generation in Bavaria, forecasts for 2016 and 2023, ("Abfallaufkommen in Bayern – Prognose 2016 und 2023“) is available to purchase now from www.bifa.de for a price of 10.00 euros + VAT + p&p or via ask-eu as a pdf download.